讀社論學 英文 At a Legislative Council financial affairs panel meeting yesterday, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po predicted a fiscal deficit of about $100 billion, more than double that announced earlier this year. He cited a drop in income from land sale, stamp duty, profits tax, etc. This figure accounts from bond revenue and repayment. Discounting bond revenue, the deficit could be even more alarming! Hong Kong's public finances are thus challenging with no signs of easily achieving balance in the coming years. This implies that both the government and citizens may need to tighten their belts. Trump to disrupt global economy Since the end of the pandemic, the robust global economic rebound many envisioned has not materialized. The IMF recently forecast global growth at around 3.2 per cent for 2024 and 2025, down from 3.3 in 2023 and significantly lower than the prepandemic annual average of 3.7. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s recovery has been slower than expected. According to the Third Quarter Economic Report released in mid-November, the annual real GDP growth forecast has been revised to the bottom of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent in August, reflecting lack of momentum and confidence. These are largely attributed to persistently high interest rates and the limited long-term effects of mainland stimulus measures, leaving Hong Kong asset markets, credit quality, investment and consumption with only modest support. Chan saw the problem, highlighting the US trade tariffs and expansionary fiscal policies under the next administration. Trump's last term severely disrupted global economic operations, and he has already hinted at imposing tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. If he returns to office and realizes these threats, the global economy could face considerable interference and impact. In September, the Fed finally initiated a rate-cut cycle, offering some relief to economies burdened by high interest rates. However, if Trump's expansionary policies reignite inflation, the Fed may have to reconsider its rate-cut pace, potentially keeping interest rates high in both the US and Hong Kong. This could cast uncertainty over the project tenders for "pilot areas" of the Northern Metropolis regardless of the letters of intent signed by enterprise representatives. Meanwhile, citizens and businesses intending to buy a home or expand business may postpone their plans. Revenues including land sales in the coming years may ultimately be jeopardized. Bond issuance is but a stopgap Perhaps to stabilize market confidence, the government has downplayed the severity. Entering bond proceeds as "revenue" in the accounts does reduce the deficit. However, it is essentially a quick fix, as repayment will eventually be required, differing in nature from ordinary revenue streams. Discounting bond proceeds, fiscal balance may take more than just "several years" to achieve. In only a few years, Hong Kong's fiscal reserves have plunged from a peak of $1.1 trillion to under $600 billion. The government mus t addre s s pub l i c concerns about deteriorating finances. Under limited prospects for significantly increasing land-sale revenue and the potential risk on competitiveness of new taxes, are there other ways to boost fiscal income? Beyond issuing bonds as a stopgap, the government could reduce waste and improve efficiency, but these are not sustainable. While high interest rates are partly to blame for the current predicament, a bigger or deeper issue lies in the broader shift toward de-globalization and intensified SinoUS competition initiated in Trump's first term. This has made it harder for Hong Kong to thrive as it once did. To weather thi s storm, Hong Kong must act ively integrate into the national development strategy and identify new growth drivers to expand its "pie" for additional revenue sources beyond land sales. 翻譯自2024年12月3日《星島日報》社論 （http://std.stheadline.com/） Deficit to persist amid turbulent environment 翻譯︰George envision (v) —— 想像 materialize (v) —— 實現 persistently (adv) —— 持續地 expansionary (adj) —— 擴張性的 reignite (v) —— 重新激起 jeopardize (v) —— 危及 downplay (v) —— 淡化 stopgap (n) —— 權宜之計 trade tariff —— 關稅 letter of intent —— 意向書 quick fix —— 應急解決辦法 national development strategy —— 國家發展大局 The financial chief said that the government has been cautious in trying to increase revenue to minimize the impact on ordinary residents and the middle class. It will focus on reducing expenditure and maintaining "zero growth" in the civil service. "As for public expenditure, we are reviewing whether there is room to further slash spending and whether we could be more aggressive," he said. 1. The word _____ in the first paragraph is the opposite of "surplus". 2. After the pandemic, there was no __________ global economic rebound. 3. In the passage, the word _____ means "put at risk". 4. The government must deal with public concerns about _____ finances. 5. According to the last paragraph, Hong Kong must actively _____ into the national development strategy. Answers 1. deficit 2. robust 3. jeopardized 4. deteriorating 5. integrate & Q A Vocabulary Useful Terms Did you know? 作者介紹 歷史思與行 當大明皇朝的歷史步入晚明，已呈日薄西山 之勢，輝煌不再，暮氣沉沉。而「明末三案」—— 梃擊案、紅丸案與移宮案，打破了皇朝殘存的 寧靜，在波譎雲詭的政治舞台上掀起驚濤駭浪， 將朝廷內部的千瘡百孔、黨爭的激烈殘酷展露無 遺。本就搖搖欲墜的明朝統治，在這一連串事 件衝擊下，如風中殘絮加速走向滅亡。故《明史》 評：「三案構爭，黨禍益熾，可哀也夫！」 1. 明朝廢相而實行內閣 制，這政治制度變動 對明末三案的發展產 生了哪些影響？可試 從三案的處理過程、 決策速度、各方權力 制衡等方面方析。 2. 從明末三案的整個過 程來看，你認為哪宗 案件對明朝的衰亡造 成最關鍵的作用？ 3. 明末三案所引發的黨 爭日益激烈，最終導 致官場陷入混亂，國 家治理亦出現失序的 情況。有鑑於此，你 認為該如何避免類似 情況再次出現？ 本欄逢周一刊登，由教育評議會邀請資深中小學老師及校長撰稿，以趣味手法，透過中國朝代的重要事件、史地、器物及人物，甚至朝代人物之超越時空故事，引發讀者對歷史的認識及興趣。 風采中學 （教育評議會主辦） 中國歷史科老師 黃彥穎 內閣制度演變 星島教室 風采中學 （教育評議會主辦） 中國歷史科科主任 許茵茵 ■梃擊案（上）及紅丸案 （下（）《三案始末》插圖） D6 侷芎 04.30.2025 星期三 明末三案 ： 皇朝覆滅前奏 內閣大學士 明成祖選拔大學入值文淵閣，始有內閣的設立。此時內閣 大學士地位較低，品秩不過五品，亦無決策權。至仁宗、宣 宗時，閣臣具有票擬權︵即檢閱奏章後寫下辦法意見，再呈給 皇帝定奪︶，地位漸崇。 四輔官、殿閣大學士 明太祖廢除宰相後，初時曾任四輔官與皇帝講論治國之道，但 由於政務繁多，又於翰林院選人為殿閣大學士，擔當皇帝的 顧問，商討政務。 內閣首輔 世宗以後，內閣首領被稱為 ﹁首輔﹂；神宗時，首輔地位儼如 宰相，成為輔政權臣。然而，由於閣臣名位不正缺乏法定 決策權力，始終受到六部尚書等官員的制約。 宮廷三案 梃擊案：刺殺疑雲 梃擊案於萬曆四十三年發生，據︽明神宗實錄︾ 所載，﹁有瘋癲男子一名 持棗木棍入慈慶宮︵即皇太子朱常洛居所︶ ，擊傷守門內官李鑒，直至前殿簷 下，為內官韓本用等所獲，付東華門守衛指揮朱雄收之﹂，此消息令朝野震 驚，人心惶惶。乍看之下，此似是一樁單純的刺殺案件，然其背後隱藏的政 治暗流，卻似深不可測之幽潭。當時，萬曆帝寵愛鄭貴妃，欲讓福王朱常洵 承繼大統，由此引發﹁國本之爭﹂ 。梃擊案發生後，眾人猜測這是鄭貴妃及其 黨羽的陰謀，意在為福王掃除繼位障礙。然而明廷處置此案卻含糊不清，涉 案男子張差被冠以瘋癲之名處死，相關涉案者未受深究，這結果無法服眾， 各方矛盾激化，黨爭之火亦因此越燃越烈 紅丸案：新帝駕崩 紅丸案，如梃擊案之續曲，接踵而至。鄭貴妃見廢太子無望，欲獲其歡 心，遂向太子朱常洛進獻八名美女，使其沉溺於酒色。萬曆四十八年，神宗 駕崩，朱常洛即位為光宗，可他登基伊始便病魔纏身。究其原因，文秉在 ︽先撥志始︾言及光宗︰ ﹁一日，退朝內宴，以女樂承應，是夜一生二旦俱御 幸焉，病體由是大劇。﹂ 可見其縱慾傷身與鄭貴妃脫離不了關係。此時，御 醫崔文昇進以瀉藥，使光宗身體更虛，如風中殘燭。隨後鴻臚寺丞李可灼獻 上紅丸，稱是仙丹，光宗不顧閣臣勸阻服下。初時病情有所好轉，再服一紅 丸之後，光宗轉瞬崩逝，在位僅三十日。對於紅丸究竟是何物，朝堂上眾 說紛紜，大臣們迅速分化陣營，相互攻訐。支持者以李可灼獻藥初衷為由為 其辯護，反對者則認定紅丸是光宗死因，要求嚴懲相關勢力。東林黨人藉此 機會攻擊政見相左者，朝廷政治環境搖搖欲墜，新帝之死也籠罩在神秘迷霧 中。 移宮案：黨派紛爭 光宗駕崩後，移宮案又起。光宗寵妃李選侍佔居乾清宮，妄圖挾持將即 位皇帝的朱由校以把持朝政。以東林黨人為首的大臣們擔憂李選侍成為第二 個鄭貴妃，便聯合要求她移出乾清宮。雙方僵持不下，最終李選侍在大臣逼 迫下移出，朱由校即位為熹宗。移宮案看似宮廷繼位之爭，實則是黨派利益 糾葛延續，東林黨人藉此擴大自身權力，反對者也對其口誅筆伐，朝廷亂象 紛呈。 廢相惹禍 明末﹁宮廷三案﹂ 絕非尋常：梃擊案、紅丸案和移宮案，三案看似不盡相 同，卻相互牽連，一屬持梃到慈慶宮︵皇太子朱常洛居所︶ 傷人；二屬明光宗 ︵朱常洛︶二服紅丸即斃；三屬受光宗寵愛的李選侍移居噦鸞宮，但均與皇帝 威權和文官系統有關。黃宗羲︽明夷待訪錄．置相︾ 篇開首即言：﹁有明之無 善治，自高皇帝罷丞相始也﹂，又言︰ ﹁宰相既罷，天子之子一不賢，更無 為賢者矣﹂。逮內閣首揆張居正歿，神宗親政，人去政息，輒後光宗、熹宗 國政日趨窳敗，方緣閹患黨禍之熾烈 流寇滿夷交侵而亡國。 觀有明歷史，蓋太祖以胡惟庸案廢除宰相， 內閣制 取代宰相制，維護朱 氏皇朝天下。後歷成祖、仁宗、宣宗之世 內閣雖迭有發展，閣臣得預聞機 務，但礙於閣臣名位不正︵因當時六部尚書才是政府最高行政長官，大學士 只是備顧問；即便神宗老師兼內閣首揆張居正也須勾結司禮監馮保，方能舒 展抱負︶，迭遭廷臣、言官刁難，官僚制度運作失效，行政效率遂是大降。 這些因素已為明中葉以後國運定了調，三案之發生和處理經過，莫不與此有 關。明神宗雖貴為皇帝，但仍受制於文官系統。正如黃仁宇在︽萬曆十五年︾ 所言：﹁皇位是一種社會制度⋯⋯一登皇位，他的全部言行都要符合道德的 規範，但是道德規範的解釋卻分屬於文官。﹂ 正是這種權力制衡和角力，使 得皇帝難為所欲為。即便神宗立太子一事，也因言官等交章攻擊，﹁不能廢 長而立愛﹂，神宗逼於公論，最後還是立了長子朱常洛，埋下日後明末三案 的發生，並導致黨爭不息，戕害國家之根本。 黨爭激化與國運衰敗 先論梃擊案，牽涉到神宗寵妃鄭貴妃，東林黨人主張嚴究，神宗和非東 林黨人則謀草草了事，最後弄到二十五年不上朝的神宗親自出面，帶着皇太 子朱常洛和皇孫，向大臣闢謠，為鄭貴妃辯解，朱常洛也當眾說出：﹁瘋癲 之人宜速決﹂，事件才告一段落。次論紅丸案，東林黨人疑鄭貴妃指使毒殺 光宗，主張嚴辦，非東林黨反對之，又掀起一場爭論。再論移宮案，東林黨 大臣楊漣、左光斗等堅決主張把李選侍移至宮妃養老之噦鸞宮，非東林黨方 從哲等則認為不應待薄先皇妃嬪，移宮﹁遲亦無害﹂ ；結果楊、左堅持下，李 選侍移居噦鸞宮，然後皇長子方即位為熹宗。熹宗即位後，寺宦魏忠賢使人 編︽三朝要典︾ ，為梃擊、紅丸、移宮三案翻案，藉此打擊東林黨人，復造所 謂︽東林點將錄 凡不附忠賢者皆為東林黨人而加逼害。 總而觀之，明末三案將朝廷的注意力轉移在宮廷內耗，衍生官場黨爭越 演越烈，歸因明初廢相後閣部爭權、言官清議等文官系統問題，加上皇帝昏 庸，造就宦官擅權，國是日非，明末三案或可看作國勢衰落下的宮廷縮影。
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